It seems generally understood that Although not yet an official announcement, Pres. Biden said today that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, and the nomination is certainly his if he wants it. I think Biden has been a fine president, and I will enthusiastically vote for him if he runs, with the expectation that he will defeat former Pres. Trump or any other Republican. The great unknowable, of course, is whether he may suffer an adverse health event during the campaign, which might influence voters to prefer a younger, more energetic candidate (if the Republicans nominate such a person). The risk cannot be waved away, so I looked at some numbers.
The mortality rate for Americans 75-84 is roughly 5% per year, reaching over 15% for those 85 and over. Biden is currently 80. He would be 82 on inauguration day in 2025, and 86 at the end of his second term. Median life expectancy at 80 for an American male is 7 years, meaning that half die below the median age (though those with excellent medical care of course tend to live longer).
That is just mortality. The likelihood of a disabling illness or event is greater, although I cannot find statistics for disability after age 65 (which is when disability insurance coverage ends) when it appears to be 30%.
The following presidents were older than 65 at inauguration: William Henry Harrison (68); James Buchanan (65); Ronald Reagan (73); Donald Trump (70); Joe Biden (78). Of these, only Harrison died in office.
Here are the ages of the presidents who died in office, other than by assassination: William Henry Harrison (68); Zachary Taylor (65); Warren Harding (57); FDR (63).
At least two presidents also had debilitating health incidents in office, though they were largely concealed at the time, with ages at their most recent inauguration: Woodrow Wilson (60 at second inauguration; stroke at 62); Dwight Eisenhower (62 at first inauguration; heart attack at 64; reelected at 66).
Posted by Steve Lubet on April 10, 2023 at 08:09 AM