The Bayh Subcommittee spent more time and energy on abolishing the Electoral College than on any other subject. During the 1970s, one argument against that idea was that black voters would be put at a disadvantage by the direct popular election of the President. Alexander Bickel made this claim. So did Vernon Jordan. It was either wrong or not right, depending on how you want to look at it.
This raises a broader point that you see from the Founding, Reconstruction, and other parts of constitutional history. Predictions about how a structural change will play out in future tend to be inaccurate. The truth is that nobody really knows how those sorts of big reforms will play out over, say, 50 or a 100 years. But judges and commentators often make confident predictions along those lines. You see that in Supreme Court opinions all the time.
Predictions like this should be discounted or ignored. Direct popular election could have hurt black voters in a past election. But in other elections the opposite was true. There was and is no pattern over the long haul. Structural reforms should be made based on broader principles rather than on anticipated results that cannot be correctly anticipated.
Posted by Gerard Magliocca on July 8, 2025 at 10:42 AM