We will probably face another debt ceiling chicken game next year. The last few times this happened, questions were raised about whether Section Four of the 14th Amendment gives the President unilateral authority to ignore the debt ceiling, raise taxes, or cut spending to prevent a debt payment postponement.
This issue is extraordinarily complex, in part because the federal budget is a maze. For example, I have no idea to what extent the President has discretion over federal spending. Some appropriations are discretionary in some ways. Does that give the Treasury enough running room to continue making debt payments by postponing certain spending until the debt ceiling is raised?
Another wrinkle here is that in the recent past examples the President was a Democrat. Will the people who argued for unilateral executive authority under Section 4 still say that with Donald Trump as President? We’ll see.
I’d like to say that I could give a firm answer on what Section 4 means, what the Constitution more broadly means with respect to debt repayment, and how all of that plays into the question of executive authority in this area. But I don’t think that’s possible.